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The specials half-life tracker
"While supplies last" is usually marketing. Sometimes it's literal. We log every tracked community's advertised concession monthly — so this page answers, with observed data instead of vibes, how fast the deep offers decay.
Observed movement, July → September 2026
| Community | First reading | Latest (Sep 2026) | Movement |
|---|
The first month of tracking produced the lesson — two of four original communities cut their concession within ~30 days — and the second month proved it at scale: the Willow Park pocket's offers collapsed outright in September (Olympus 8→2 weeks, Oxford's "2 months free" gone entirely) while two communities further west raised theirs to 8 weeks. Decay and migration, in the same table. "While supplies last" was literal, and the only offer that matters is the one written on your quote.
What the decay pattern means for timing
Deep concessions are a closing window, not a standing offer. A lease-up cuts its special the moment occupancy targets get close — often mid-month, without announcement. If a community on the leaderboard is at 8 weeks, the historically smart move is touring this month, not next.
But decay cuts both ways: new lease-ups reset the market. The pipeline tracker shows what's filing now — future supply that will eventually spawn the next 8-week war. This page and that one are two halves of one timing question.
This tracker compounds monthly: every future reading adds a row of real market memory that exists nowhere else.