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The specials half-life tracker
"While supplies last" is usually marketing. Sometimes it's literal. We log every tracked community's advertised concession monthly — so this page answers, with observed data instead of vibes, how fast the deep offers decay.
Observed movement, July → August 2026
| Community | July | August | Movement |
|---|
The first month of tracking already produced the lesson: two of four original communities cut their concession within ~30 days — Willow Crossing by half. "While supplies last" was literal. Meanwhile listing sites briefly showed Canvas at both 6 and 8 weeks simultaneously, which is why we log the range, and why the only offer that matters is the one written on your quote.
What the decay pattern means for timing
Deep concessions are a closing window, not a standing offer. A lease-up cuts its special the moment occupancy targets get close — often mid-month, without announcement. If a community on the leaderboard is at 8 weeks, the historically smart move is touring this month, not next.
But decay cuts both ways: new lease-ups reset the market. The pipeline tracker shows what's filing now — future supply that will eventually spawn the next 8-week war. This page and that one are two halves of one timing question.
This tracker compounds monthly: every future reading adds a row of real market memory that exists nowhere else.